Bank of England holds at 3.75%; 7-2 vote keeps hike risk alive

3.75% is still the Bank of England's policy rate after the Monetary Policy Committee voted 7-2 to hold at the meeting ending June 17. The decision, published on June 18, came with two dissenters, Megan Greene and Huw Pill, who preferred a 0.25 percentage point increase to 4% in response to inflation risks linked to energy prices.

The primary source is the Bank's June 2026 Monetary Policy Summary and Minutes. CNBC's feed carried the market-facing headline shortly after publication, but the vote split, rate level and inflation language come from the central-bank release.

Metric | June 2026 figure
Bank Rate | 3.75%
Vote split | 7 hold, 2 hike
Dissenting preference | Increase by 0.25 percentage points to 4%
May CPI inflation | 2.8%
Q4 2026 CPI projection | A little over 3.25%
UK two-year OIS move vs pre-war level | About +70 bps

The hold is Tier-1 because it is a major central-bank action with a split vote and explicit guidance around energy-driven inflation risk. The MPC said global energy prices had fallen from recent highs after Middle East peace developments, but remained above pre-conflict levels and volatile. Brent crude and UK wholesale gas averaged $100 per barrel and 116 pence per therm since the April report, before falling near $79 and 100 pence per therm ahead of the June meeting.

The inflation message was not a clean dovish signal. CPI inflation was 2.8% in May, below the April report's near-term forecast, yet the Bank expects inflation to rise later this year as energy costs pass through. The minutes also said mortgage and corporate borrowing costs had already tightened, with two-year fixed mortgage quotes around 80 bps above the pre-conflict level.

The next policy checkpoint is the July 30 MPC announcement. Markets will watch whether energy prices stay near the post-deal lows, whether household inflation expectations remain elevated, and whether Greene or Pill gain support for a 4% Bank Rate.

Not investment advice. Verify all figures with primary sources before acting.