WTI falls 3.2% below $85 as U.S.-Iran Hormuz deal nears

Oil repriced lower on a concrete geopolitical catalyst: a possible U.S.-Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. CNBC reported that U.S. crude futures fell 3.2% to settle at $84.88 per barrel, while Brent lost 3.4% to $87.33. The move took WTI below $85 even though crude prices remained more than 20% above levels before the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28.

The stated probability moved the market. A senior Trump administration official told CNBC they saw an 80% chance that the U.S. and Iran would sign an agreement in the coming days. The proposed deal would reopen Hormuz, lift the U.S. naval blockade, dismantle Iran's nuclear program, and remove enriched uranium, according to that official.

Market item | Figure | Catalyst
WTI settlement | $84.88 | -3.2% on Friday
Brent settlement | $87.33 | -3.4% on Friday
Weekly oil move | About -6% | Deal hopes
Move since Feb. 28 | More than +20% | Post-attack risk premium
Deal probability | 80% | Senior U.S. official estimate

The details are still contested. CNBC said an Iranian state-media document described a different framework that included U.S. force withdrawals, a 30-day blockade lift, $300B in reconstruction money, and Tehran-set arrangements for reopening Hormuz. President Donald Trump denied that leaked text matched the written terms agreed by Washington.

The next check is whether a signed text confirms the shipping and sanctions mechanics. For energy markets, the key variables are Hormuz transit timing, naval blockade status, enriched-uranium removal, and whether financial incentives depend on verified compliance. Until those details are filed or jointly announced, oil will trade on headline risk as much as barrels.