April CPI hits 3-year high at 3.8%; markets price 30% odds of Fed rate hike

U.S. consumer prices rose 3.8% annually in April, topping the Dow Jones consensus estimate of 3.7% and marking the highest reading since May 2023, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. On a monthly basis, the CPI advanced 0.6% — in line with forecasts. Treasury yields climbed and stock-index futures fell immediately after the release, while CME Group data showed markets pricing roughly 30% odds of at least one Fed rate hike by year-end.

Energy was the dominant driver, rising 3.8% for the month and 17.9% year-over-year. Gasoline prices surged 28.4% over the past year, pushing the national average to $4.50 per gallon (AAA). The climb reflects crude oil trading above $100 per barrel as the Iran-Hormuz conflict persists. Food prices added another 0.5% monthly and 3.2% annually.

Tariff-sensitive categories accelerated sharply: apparel rose 0.6% for the month, while airline fares jumped 2.8% — lifting the 12-month gain to 20.7%. Shelter costs advanced 0.6% and household furnishings climbed 0.7%. Core CPI — excluding food and energy — came in at +0.4% monthly and +2.8% annually, well above the Fed's 2% target and up 0.2 percentage point from March.

The most alarming signal: real average hourly wages fell 0.5% in April and were down 0.3% versus a year earlier — the first annual decline in three years. Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, called it a "real financial squeeze," warning that "for the first time in three years, inflation is eating up all wage gains" for middle- and lower-income households.

The Federal Reserve, which has held rates steady all year, faces a narrowing path. April's FOMC meeting generated four dissents — the most since 1992. Incoming Chair Kevin Warsh, a rate-cut advocate, now confronts an inflation trajectory that makes cutting difficult to justify. The next FOMC decision is scheduled for June; consensus expects no change, with rate-hike risk priced increasingly into the December meeting.