American $AAL drops 8% as Q3 fuel guide points to $1.7B headwind

American Airlines $AAL fell about 8% after second-quarter results put the fuel bill ahead of the revenue record. The company reported $16.7B of Q2 revenue, up 16.3% year over year, but said fuel expense increased by more than $2.2B, or 83%, from the same period last year.

The market reaction centered on guidance rather than the top line. American said demand and pricing offset nearly 50% of the Q2 fuel increase, but its forward curve as of July 21 implies Q3 fuel expense will be up $1.7B year over year. The company expects Q3 revenue growth of 16.0%-19.0%, yet guided adjusted EPS to a loss of $0.70-$0.10.

For full-year 2026, American now expects adjusted earnings or loss per diluted share between ($0.65) and $0.65. That range makes fuel volatility the central swing factor for airline margins into the second half, even as the company points to premium demand, international strength and loyalty revenue as offsets.

The Q2 income statement was not weak in isolation. GAAP net income was $71M, or $0.11 per diluted share. Adjusted net income was $99M, or $0.15 per diluted share. Passenger unit revenue rose 13.4% in premium, 8.8% in Main Cabin, 10.6% in domestic markets, 8.9% across the Atlantic, 15.1% in the Pacific and 6.6% in Latin America.

The next check is whether revenue growth can keep absorbing the fuel curve. Investors will watch Q3 unit revenue, average fuel price against the guided $3.75 per gallon, and whether CASM-ex stays within the company’s 2.5%-4.5% growth range.

Not investment advice. Verify all figures with primary sources before acting.