April NFP Doubles Forecast at 115,000; Unemployment Climbs to 4.3%

April nonfarm payrolls expanded by 115,000, more than double the Dow Jones consensus estimate of 55,000, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on May 8. The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, as more workers re-entered the labor force -- a sign of expanding participation rather than layoffs. The reading broadly defied recession-odds that had been building amid tariff-driven uncertainty.

The magnitude of the beat -- 60,000 jobs above forecast -- ranks among the largest positive surprises in recent months. Economists had expected a sharp deceleration in hiring as companies waited for clarity on U.S. trade policy. The actual result suggests the labor market retained significant underlying momentum through April even as goods-trade uncertainty intensified.

Bond markets moved sharply on the print. The 2-year Treasury yield rose as traders repriced Federal Reserve rate-cut expectations toward the latter half of 2026. Fed funds futures reduced the probability of a June cut significantly, with the market consensus now pointing toward a first full cut by September 2026 at the earliest. The FOMC is in blackout ahead of its upcoming policy meeting, and officials will have both this NFP report and the April CPI print -- due mid-May -- before their next public communications window.

The payroll beat adds complexity to the Fed's dual-mandate calculus: with employment well above stall speed, policymakers have less urgency to cut preemptively. Chair Powell has repeatedly framed the Fed as data-dependent, and this NFP number materially narrows the argument for near-term easing. Core PCE and average hourly earnings data will complete the picture.

Upcoming data to watch: April Consumer Price Index (mid-May), FOMC upcoming meeting statement, and May preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment.

Not investment advice. Verify all figures with primary sources before acting.