Bank of Japan holds policy rate at 0.75%; FY2026 CPI seen at 2.5%-3.0%

The Bank of Japan kept its policy-rate setting unchanged on April 28, voting 6-3 to guide the uncollateralized overnight call rate to "remain at around 0.75 percent". That left the rate steady, but the split matters: three dissenters wanted the rate moved to around 1.0%, a sign that the debate inside the board is shifting from whether normalization continues to how quickly it should proceed if imported inflation proves persistent.

The more market-moving part of the decision sat in the April Outlook Report. The BOJ said Japan's core CPI, excluding fresh food, is likely to rise 2.5%-3.0% in fiscal 2026, then slow to 2.0%-2.5% in fiscal 2027 and around 2% in fiscal 2028. At the same time, it warned that fiscal 2026 growth will decelerate because higher crude prices hurt corporate profits and household real income.

The report makes the oil assumption explicit. The BOJ said Dubai crude had risen to around $105 per barrel and built its base case on that price easing into the $70-$80 range by the end of the projection period. If that does not happen, the bank sees a larger hit to growth and a stronger pass-through into goods and energy prices. In the bank's own phrasing, "risks to prices are skewed to the upside" for fiscal 2026 even while risks to activity lean down.

That combination is more hawkish than a simple hold headline suggests. A steady 0.75% policy rate paired with higher inflation projections and open dissent for 1.0% pushes traders to think about a narrower margin for policy patience later this year. It also keeps pressure on rate-sensitive positioning across the yen, Japanese government bonds, and regional equities tied to imported-energy costs.

CNBC highlighted the split vote, while the BOJ's policy statement and outlook provided the harder numbers. The next watchpoints are the full-text outlook release on April 30 and the May 12 summary of opinions, which should show how close the board is to accepting a faster path toward 1.0% if oil-driven inflation sticks.

Not investment advice. Verify all figures with primary sources before acting.