Japan to receive first Hormuz crude since Iran war; Saudi supertanker with 2M barrels due Nagoya May 25

Overview

For the first time since Iran's war began on February 28, 2026 and blocked the Strait of Hormuz, a supertanker carrying Saudi crude has successfully transited the strait. The vessel Idemitsu Maru, loaded with 2 million barrels of Saudi crude, is scheduled to arrive at Nagoya, Japan on May 25. The passage comes as Japan's Middle East crude imports had collapsed 67.2% year-over-year in April, forcing the country to secure alternative supplies and release strategic reserves.

Japan's Energy Exposure

Japan historically sourced more than 90% of its crude oil imports from the Middle East, with virtually all of that supply routed through Hormuz. The February 28 conflict — which saw Iran blockade the strait while the U.S. imposed a separate blockade — severed that lifeline almost entirely. In the months since, Japan has sourced crude from non-Middle East suppliers and drawn down strategic stockpiles, but the long-term sustainability of that posture is limited.

What This Transit Means

The Idemitsu Maru's passage is the first confirmed Hormuz crude delivery since hostilities began, demonstrating that at least intermittent transit is possible under current conditions. A single voyage does not signal the blockade's end — Iranian and U.S. forces remain positioned around the strait — but any diplomatic breakthrough or ceasefire would likely accelerate additional transits and relieve supply pressure across Asia-Pacific crude markets.

Broader Market Implications

The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly 20% of global crude and LNG transit. Some analysts have warned of a 2008-style oil supply shock if the strait remains closed through August. The Idemitsu Maru's transit may introduce modest supply-resumption expectations into crude forward pricing, though a single voyage is unlikely to materially shift the supply picture.

What to Watch

May 25: Idemitsu Maru confirmed arrival at Nagoya

Whether additional tankers attempt or complete Hormuz passage

End-of-August diplomatic or military developments — the implied market deadline for severe price-shock risk

Source: Yahoo Finance

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