China's Humanoid Robots Could Power Its Next Export Wave, Morgan Stanley Says

A Morgan Stanley research note published May 7, 2026 projects that China's humanoid robot output will help lift its global manufacturing share from 15% to 16.5% by 2030 — following the same export-dominance pattern the country established in electric vehicles.

Scale-Up in Progress

Unitree Robotics, China's most prominent humanoid robot maker, is targeting 10,000 to 20,000 units in 2026 alone — an order of magnitude above industry-wide shipments just a year ago. Chinese manufacturers benefit from a vertically integrated supply chain, lower labor costs, and government industrial policy — the same structural advantages that drove China's EV export surge.

Commercial Deployments Already Underway

Agility Robotics' Digit robot has been deployed in real manufacturing environments — seven-plus units are handling RAV4 material at a Toyota plant in Canada. Chinese manufacturers are similarly accelerating in-factory deployments to accumulate real-world validation data critical to international sales cycles.

The EV Parallel

Morgan Stanley's comparison to EVs is pointed: China moved from niche EV producer to global export leader in roughly a decade through cost manufacturing, supply chain control, and state backing. Humanoid robots may follow a similar arc, with the timeline potentially compressed by the AI software foundation being layered onto hardware. The US and Europe are already evaluating regulatory responses. Source: Bloomberg.