United $UAL cuts 2026 EPS guide to $7-$11 as fuel hits $4.30

United Airlines $UAL turned a first-quarter beat into a guidance reset because fuel, not demand, is now the binding variable. CNBC reported that United cut its 2026 adjusted EPS forecast to $7-$11 from the $12-$14 range it issued in January. The carrier said second-quarter adjusted EPS should land between $1 and $2, below the $2.08 LSEG estimate, with average fuel expected at $4.30 per gallon.

The quarter itself was stronger than the new outlook suggests. United reported adjusted EPS of $1.19 versus $1.07 expected by LSEG, and revenue of $14.61B versus a $14.37B estimate. Its company release said total operating revenue rose 10.6% year over year, premium revenue rose 14%, loyalty revenue rose 13%, business revenue rose 14%, and ending liquidity was $17.2B.

Metric | New signal | Prior / estimate
2026 adjusted EPS guide | $7-$11 | $12-$14 prior
Q2 adjusted EPS guide | $1-$2 | $2.08 LSEG estimate
Q1 revenue | $14.61B | $14.37B LSEG estimate
Q2 fuel assumption | $4.30 per gallon | $2.39 on Feb. 27, per Platts data cited by CNBC

Management is cutting capacity rather than waiting for fuel to normalize. United said it plans to reduce five points of planned capacity for the rest of 2026, leaving third- and fourth-quarter capacity flat to up about 2% year over year. First-quarter capacity had grown 3.4%.

The read-through is sector-wide. Higher fares and fees may help United recover 40%-50% of the fuel increase in Q2, rising to 85%-100% by year-end, but the timing matters for margins. The next check is whether peers copy United's capacity discipline or compete away pricing power while fuel remains elevated.

For the equity tape, that makes the story less about Q1 demand and more about Q2 unit economics. United can absorb higher fuel if premium traffic, loyalty revenue, and constrained capacity hold together; the risk is a slower consumer meeting a still-elevated energy bill.

Not investment advice. Verify all figures with primary sources before acting.