#ppi

April U.S. Producer Price Index jumped 6.0% year-over-year (consensus: 4.8%) and 1.4% month-over-month (consensus: 0.5%), marking a four-year high for wholesale inflation. Core PPI hit 5.2% YoY against a 4.3% estimate, driven by energy price surge from the 11-week Iran-Gulf conflict. Bank of America pushed its first Federal Reserve rate-cut forecast to July 2027, with Kalshi prediction markets now pricing 47% odds of a hike before that date.

U.S. producer prices rose 0.5% in March, well below the 1.1% consensus cited by CNBC, while core PPI increased just 0.1%. The downside surprise came even as energy prices jumped, complicating the inflation picture but reinforcing the case for a cautious Fed.