The Fed’s June minutes showed a 3.6% policy rate and an even split among 18 submitted projections over whether rates should rise or stay flat or fall by year-end. AI infrastructure demand appeared as a new inflation pressure point.
June nonfarm payrolls rose 57,000, below the 115,000 economist forecast cited by MarketWatch, while the unemployment rate eased to 4.2%. BLS also revised April and May payrolls down by a combined 74,000.
U.S. private payrolls rose by 98,000 in June, below the 110,000 Wall Street Journal consensus cited in market coverage and down from 122,000 in May. The miss puts Friday's official payrolls release and Fed rate-risk pricing back at the center of cross-asset trading.
The BEA said May headline PCE inflation rose 4.1% from a year earlier, while core PCE reached 3.4%. Monthly PCE prices increased 0.4%, keeping the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge well above its 2% target.
U.S. producer prices rose 1.1% in May, above the 0.7% Dow Jones consensus cited by CNBC. The surprise puts energy-sensitive inflation back in focus for Fed pricing and Treasury-market positioning.
May nonfarm payrolls rose 172,000, more than double the 80,000 Dow Jones consensus, while unemployment held at 4.3%. CNBC, citing the Bureau of Labor Statistics report, said Treasury yields moved sharply higher as the labor surprise reduced near-term Fed-cut odds.
The University of Michigan final May sentiment index fell to 44.8, below April’s 49.8 and the 48.2 preliminary reading. One-year inflation expectations rose to 4.8% and long-run expectations climbed to 3.9%, keeping the release in the Fed-relevant macro category.
Kevin Warsh was sworn in as Federal Reserve chair on May 22, 2026, in a White House ceremony hosted by President Trump — the first time a Fed chair has taken the oath at the White House in approximately 40 years. Warsh, who served as a Fed governor from 2006 to 2011 and dissented against QE programs, is regarded as a hawkish voice; markets are watching for signals of a shift in the Fed independence framework and rate trajectory.
The 30-year US Treasury yield surged to 5.17%—briefly touching 5.20%—its highest level since 2007, as Iran-driven energy inflation fears pushed traders to price in a greater-than-50% chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike by December 2026. WTI crude fell ~2% to $102 on Trump's Iran peace pledge, but bond market stress persists as the 10-year yield also hit a 16-month high of 4.687%.
Fed funds futures markets have shifted to price in a rate hike — not a cut — as the next move by the Federal Reserve, with December the earliest expected date. The Survey of Professional Forecasters from the Philadelphia Fed now projects Q2 CPI at 6%, more than double its 2.7% forecast from three months ago. The 30-year Treasury yield has crossed 5.1%, and newly installed Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces immediate internal pressure on the direction of policy.
US April import prices surged 1.9% m/m on May 15 — nearly double the +1.0% consensus estimate — while Iran-nuclear-deal impasse kept the Strait of Hormuz shut and sent oil up 3%-plus. The S&P 500 closed at 7,408.50 (-1.24%) and the Nasdaq fell 1.54%. The 10-year Treasury yield surged 116 basis points to 4.54%, its highest level in nearly a year, and markets now price a 50% probability of a Fed rate hike before year-end.
April U.S. Producer Price Index jumped 6.0% year-over-year (consensus: 4.8%) and 1.4% month-over-month (consensus: 0.5%), marking a four-year high for wholesale inflation. Core PPI hit 5.2% YoY against a 4.3% estimate, driven by energy price surge from the 11-week Iran-Gulf conflict. Bank of America pushed its first Federal Reserve rate-cut forecast to July 2027, with Kalshi prediction markets now pricing 47% odds of a hike before that date.