American $AAL cuts 2026 EPS guide to -$0.40-$1.10 on fuel

American Airlines $AAL turned record first-quarter revenue into a fuel-driven guidance cut. CNBC reported that American lowered its 2026 adjusted EPS forecast to a range of a $0.40 loss to $1.10 profit, down from the $1.70-$2.70 range it gave in January. The company's first-quarter release said the full-year midpoint is now expected to be roughly flat with 2025 despite more than $4B of additional expense tied to higher jet-fuel prices.

The quarter itself cleared Wall Street's low bar. American reported a $0.40 adjusted loss per share versus the $0.47 loss expected by LSEG, while revenue was $13.91B against a $13.79B estimate. Revenue rose 10.8% year over year to a first-quarter record of $13.9B even after an estimated $320M winter-storm hit.

The market signal is that demand strength is not enough to protect airline earnings when fuel reprices this quickly. American expects second-quarter revenue to grow 13.5%-16.5% year over year and capacity to rise by as much as 6%, but the same outlook leaves adjusted EPS near breakeven. Unit revenue was up 7.6% year over year in Q1, and Atlantic passenger unit revenue rose 16.7%.

The balance sheet gives American more room than in prior fuel shocks. The company ended Q1 with total debt of $34.7B, its lowest level since mid-2015, and liquidity of $10.8B. That cushion does not remove the earnings sensitivity: fuel is usually the largest airline cost after labor, and competitors including United and Southwest are also resetting guidance around the same energy shock.

The next check is whether American can keep premium revenue, loyalty spend, and Q2 bookings strong enough to offset fuel without pushing capacity into a weaker consumer. Investors will also watch whether jet fuel stays near the current forward curve before the company gives its next update.

Not investment advice. Verify all figures with primary sources before acting.