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WTI rose $2.93 to $90.29 and Brent added $2.52 to $93.64 after a fresh U.S.-Iran exchange of strikes. The move keeps the Strait of Hormuz risk premium inside inflation, rates, and energy-equity pricing.

Supertanker Idemitsu Maru, carrying 2 million barrels of Saudi crude, is set to arrive in Nagoya on May 25 — the first successful Strait of Hormuz passage since Iran's war began February 28, 2026. Japan's Middle East crude imports had collapsed 67.2% year-over-year in April as the strait was blocked.

G7 finance ministers are meeting in Paris on May 18–19 as the prolonged Strait of Hormuz closure drives global oil inventories toward all-time lows by the end of May, according to UBS. The gathering comes as long-term borrowing costs surge across G7 economies and Eurogroup head Pascal Donohoe called opening the Strait 'of utmost importance.'

Brent crude rose to $103.99 (+2.67%) on May 11, touching an intraday high of $106.00, after President Trump declared Iran's latest peace offer 'totally unacceptable.' Morgan Stanley warned a Hormuz closure could push Brent to $150/bbl by summer. Pimco flagged the risk that a prolonged Iran conflict could force the Federal Reserve to raise rates.

Saudi Aramco reported Q1 2026 adjusted net income of $33.6 billion, beating the analyst consensus of $31.2 billion by 7.7% and rising 26% year-over-year. CEO Amin Nasser credited the East-West Pipeline — now at maximum 7.0 million bpd capacity — for bypassing the Hormuz blockade and delivering crude to locked-out customers.

Iran's Army spokesperson warned on May 10 that ships from countries joining U.S. Iran sanctions will be barred from the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude closed Friday at $101.29 per barrel, up 95% in Q1, with cumulative supply losses approaching one billion barrels.

A US-Iran peace deal framework is advancing, with proposed terms including a freeze on Iran's nuclear enrichment, release of frozen Iranian assets, and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping. Iran is expected to respond formally within 48 hours through Pakistan as mediator. Brent crude has fallen 14% from $126 to around $108, with WTI dropping below the $100 psychological level. Equity futures rallied broadly on the development.

Brent pushed above $114 after the UAE said it will leave OPEC and OPEC+ on May 1, removing the cartel's third-largest producer at a time of disrupted Hormuz shipping. Abu Dhabi framed the move as a capacity decision, not a break with oil-market stability.

American $AAL lowered its 2026 adjusted EPS outlook to a loss of $0.40 to profit of $1.10, from $1.70-$2.70 in January, as jet-fuel costs add more than $4B of expense.

Iran said it seized two container ships in the Strait of Hormuz after reports of three attacks; Brent briefly topped $100 before trading 0.5% higher at $99.03.

United $UAL cut its 2026 adjusted EPS outlook to $7-$11 from $12-$14, even as Q1 adjusted EPS of $1.19 and revenue of $14.61B beat LSEG estimates.

$760M of Brent crude futures were sold between 12:24 and 12:25 GMT, about 20 minutes before Iran said the Strait of Hormuz was open. Reuters said crude fell as much as 11% after the headline, adding to U.S. scrutiny of well-timed oil trades tied to Iran-war policy shifts.