ECB holds deposit rate at 2.25% as oil shock keeps inflation risk open

2.25% remains the ECB deposit facility rate after the Governing Council left all three policy rates unchanged on 23 July 2026. The ECB decision kept the main refinancing operations rate at 2.40% and the marginal lending facility rate at 2.65%, holding the stance set after the 25-basis-point increase that took effect on 17 June.

The market relevance is the energy channel. The ECB said the outlook for energy prices is highly volatile, close to the June staff baseline, and well above levels seen before the Middle East conflict. That framing matters for bonds because the central bank is pausing after a June hike while still warning that the full inflationary effect of the energy shock has not yet arrived.

The rate table is simple: deposit facility 2.25%, main refinancing operations 2.40%, marginal lending facility 2.65%. The decision is not a dovish pivot. It is a hold with explicit language that uncertainty remains high and that policy will be set meeting by meeting from incoming data.

For investors, the next test is whether oil-driven headline inflation passes into wages, services prices, and market inflation expectations. If those second-round indicators rise before the next meeting, the July hold will look like a pause inside a tightening cycle rather than the end of it.

Not investment advice. Verify all figures with primary sources before acting.