US 30-year Treasury tops 5.11%, 10-year breaks 4.5% barrier; S&P 500 slides 1.24%
Original: Here's where Treasury yields will peak and open up a rare opportunity to buy stocks and bonds, says Wall Street veteran View original →
US 30-year Treasury yields rose to 5.11%, clearing the closely watched 5% threshold, while the benchmark 10-year note reached as high as 4.6% intraday before settling at 4.577% — breaking above the 4.5% resistance level that had capped yields for several months. The current 10-year yield sits near the top of its 52-week range of 3.35%–5.00%; the 30-year is within 4 basis points of its 52-week high of 5.15%.
The sell-off in long-duration Treasuries rippled across global equity markets. The S&P 500 finished at 7,408.50 (-92.74 points, -1.24%), the Nasdaq Composite at 26,225.14 (-410.05, -1.54%), and the Dow Jones Industrial Average at 49,526.17 (-537.33, -1.07%). Technology and semiconductor names bore the brunt: Nvidia ($NVDA) fell 4.42% and Intel ($INTC) dropped 6.18%.
Analysts attribute the yield spike to a combination of ongoing US fiscal pressures — elevated federal deficits and rising interest payments — and a renewed geopolitical risk premium following President Trump's comments on potential infrastructure strikes against Iran. Deutsche Bank analysts recommended adding hedges, citing the post-earnings season calm as a window for volatility re-entry and Middle East tensions regaining market focus.
Veteran market strategist Ed Yardeni, writing in MarketWatch, suggested that 10-year yields could approach 5% in the near term before stabilizing, characterizing that threshold as a potential entry point for both equities and fixed income. However, the path there involves near-term disruption to risk assets across markets.
South Korean markets absorbed the full impact: the KOSPI triggered a sell-side circuit-breaker for the second consecutive session on May 18, falling 4.7% intraday before staging a recovery to close up 0.31% at 7,516.04. South Korean 10-year yields rose 2.2 basis points to 4.239%, and the USD/KRW rate crossed 1,502, re-breaching the 1,500 psychological level. Foreign investors have sold Korean equities on eight consecutive sessions, accumulating over KRW 4 trillion ($2.66 billion) in net sales.
Key dates ahead: US existing home sales for April (May 22), Federal Reserve FOMC minutes release, and the US 30-year Treasury auction (late May) — each capable of shifting the yield direction materially.
Not investment advice. Verify all figures with primary sources before acting.
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Margin lending in Korean equity markets reached a record KRW 36.47 trillion as of May 15, up 33.66% from year-end 2025, as retail investors borrowed heavily to chase the KOSPI's approximately 70% year-to-date gain. Short-selling balances simultaneously surged 67.18% to KRW 20.58 trillion, near an all-time peak, prompting securities firms to warn of potential cascading forced-liquidation events.
South Korea's KOSPI crossed 8,000 for the first time in history on May 15, peaking at 8,046.78 before a circuit breaker was triggered as KOSPI 200 futures fell more than 5%. The index closed at 7,493.18, down 6.12%, as foreign investors dumped a net KRW 5 trillion in a single session. Retail investors' seven-day, KRW 30-trillion buying streak could not offset the outflow, while KB Securities raised its KOSPI target from 7,500 to 10,500.
US April import prices surged 1.9% m/m on May 15 — nearly double the +1.0% consensus estimate — while Iran-nuclear-deal impasse kept the Strait of Hormuz shut and sent oil up 3%-plus. The S&P 500 closed at 7,408.50 (-1.24%) and the Nasdaq fell 1.54%. The 10-year Treasury yield surged 116 basis points to 4.54%, its highest level in nearly a year, and markets now price a 50% probability of a Fed rate hike before year-end.
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