#bonds

SpaceX priced a $25B inaugural senior unsecured bond offering, with settlement expected June 26. CNBC reported nearly $90B of orders, making the sale a major post-IPO credit-market test.

The 30-year US Treasury yield surged to 5.17%—briefly touching 5.20%—its highest level since 2007, as Iran-driven energy inflation fears pushed traders to price in a greater-than-50% chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike by December 2026. WTI crude fell ~2% to $102 on Trump's Iran peace pledge, but bond market stress persists as the 10-year yield also hit a 16-month high of 4.687%.

US 30-year Treasury yields hit 5.11%, clearing the psychologically key 5% level, while the 10-year note reached 4.6% intraday before settling near 4.577%. The S&P 500 fell 1.24% to 7,408.50 as technology stocks led declines — Nvidia $NVDA off 4.42%, Intel $INTC down 6.18%. Deutsche Bank flagged the post-earnings lull and Middle East tensions as catalysts for defensive positioning.

Fed funds futures markets have shifted to price in a rate hike — not a cut — as the next move by the Federal Reserve, with December the earliest expected date. The Survey of Professional Forecasters from the Philadelphia Fed now projects Q2 CPI at 6%, more than double its 2.7% forecast from three months ago. The 30-year Treasury yield has crossed 5.1%, and newly installed Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces immediate internal pressure on the direction of policy.

US April import prices surged 1.9% m/m on May 15 — nearly double the +1.0% consensus estimate — while Iran-nuclear-deal impasse kept the Strait of Hormuz shut and sent oil up 3%-plus. The S&P 500 closed at 7,408.50 (-1.24%) and the Nasdaq fell 1.54%. The 10-year Treasury yield surged 116 basis points to 4.54%, its highest level in nearly a year, and markets now price a 50% probability of a Fed rate hike before year-end.