#geopolitics

WTI rose $2.93 to $90.29 and Brent added $2.52 to $93.64 after a fresh U.S.-Iran exchange of strikes. The move keeps the Strait of Hormuz risk premium inside inflation, rates, and energy-equity pricing.

Brent crude fell $4.86 to $98.68 and U.S. crude dropped more than 4% to $91.83 after reports of progress toward a U.S.-Iran deal. Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 2.9% to 65,158.19, its first close above 65,000.

G7 finance ministers are meeting in Paris on May 18–19 as the prolonged Strait of Hormuz closure drives global oil inventories toward all-time lows by the end of May, according to UBS. The gathering comes as long-term borrowing costs surge across G7 economies and Eurogroup head Pascal Donohoe called opening the Strait 'of utmost importance.'

Anthropic published a research paper outlining two possible futures for global AI leadership by 2028, framing the stakes around US-China chip competition and export controls rather than traditional AGI safety concerns.

Iran's Army spokesperson warned on May 10 that ships from countries joining U.S. Iran sanctions will be barred from the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude closed Friday at $101.29 per barrel, up 95% in Q1, with cumulative supply losses approaching one billion barrels.

HMM (011200.KS), South Korea's largest container shipping company, reported its vessel Namwoo was hit by an unidentified flying object while anchored in the Strait of Hormuz. Seoul's presidential office immediately convened an emergency NSC working-level meeting. Iran's military simultaneously warned that ships from nations joining U.S. sanctions would be barred from Hormuz transit.

A US-Iran peace deal framework is advancing, with proposed terms including a freeze on Iran's nuclear enrichment, release of frozen Iranian assets, and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping. Iran is expected to respond formally within 48 hours through Pakistan as mediator. Brent crude has fallen 14% from $126 to around $108, with WTI dropping below the $100 psychological level. Equity futures rallied broadly on the development.

Iran said it seized two container ships in the Strait of Hormuz after reports of three attacks; Brent briefly topped $100 before trading 0.5% higher at $99.03.

Brent crude fell 9.1% to $90.38 on April 17 after Iran said the Strait of Hormuz was open, while the S&P 500 rose 1.2% to a record. On April 18, Iran said control of the strait had reverted to strict military management, and AP reported that UKMTO said IRGC gunboats fired on a tanker.