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WTI rose $2.93 to $90.29 and Brent added $2.52 to $93.64 after a fresh U.S.-Iran exchange of strikes. The move keeps the Strait of Hormuz risk premium inside inflation, rates, and energy-equity pricing.

Supertanker Idemitsu Maru, carrying 2 million barrels of Saudi crude, is set to arrive in Nagoya on May 25 — the first successful Strait of Hormuz passage since Iran's war began February 28, 2026. Japan's Middle East crude imports had collapsed 67.2% year-over-year in April as the strait was blocked.

The 30-year US Treasury yield surged to 5.17%—briefly touching 5.20%—its highest level since 2007, as Iran-driven energy inflation fears pushed traders to price in a greater-than-50% chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike by December 2026. WTI crude fell ~2% to $102 on Trump's Iran peace pledge, but bond market stress persists as the 10-year yield also hit a 16-month high of 4.687%.

Brent crude rose to $103.99 (+2.67%) on May 11, touching an intraday high of $106.00, after President Trump declared Iran's latest peace offer 'totally unacceptable.' Morgan Stanley warned a Hormuz closure could push Brent to $150/bbl by summer. Pimco flagged the risk that a prolonged Iran conflict could force the Federal Reserve to raise rates.

The University of Michigan's preliminary May 2026 consumer sentiment reading of 48.2 set a new all-time record low, breaking the prior trough of 50.0 from June 2022. Surging gasoline prices from Iran's Hormuz blockade are the primary catalyst, complicating the Fed's rate path while the S&P 500 posts six consecutive weeks of gains.

Saudi Aramco reported Q1 2026 adjusted net income of $33.6 billion, beating the analyst consensus of $31.2 billion by 7.7% and rising 26% year-over-year. CEO Amin Nasser credited the East-West Pipeline — now at maximum 7.0 million bpd capacity — for bypassing the Hormuz blockade and delivering crude to locked-out customers.

Iran's Army spokesperson warned on May 10 that ships from countries joining U.S. Iran sanctions will be barred from the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude closed Friday at $101.29 per barrel, up 95% in Q1, with cumulative supply losses approaching one billion barrels.

HMM (011200.KS), South Korea's largest container shipping company, reported its vessel Namwoo was hit by an unidentified flying object while anchored in the Strait of Hormuz. Seoul's presidential office immediately convened an emergency NSC working-level meeting. Iran's military simultaneously warned that ships from nations joining U.S. sanctions would be barred from Hormuz transit.

Whirlpool shares fell 20% Thursday after the appliance maker declared the Iran war caused a 'recession-level industry decline' in the U.S. as consumer confidence collapsed in late February and March. Skyrocketing fuel costs are driving demand destruction in large-ticket household goods.

A US-Iran peace deal framework is advancing, with proposed terms including a freeze on Iran's nuclear enrichment, release of frozen Iranian assets, and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping. Iran is expected to respond formally within 48 hours through Pakistan as mediator. Brent crude has fallen 14% from $126 to around $108, with WTI dropping below the $100 psychological level. Equity futures rallied broadly on the development.