Iraq and Syria signed a memorandum to rehabilitate the Kirkuk-Baniyas crude line, part of roughly $60B in U.S.-Iraq agreements reported on July 17. AP reported a projected 2M barrels per day route that would reduce reliance on the Strait of Hormuz.
ConocoPhillips $COP agreed to acquire a 42% interest in BP Energy Company of Kirkuk Limited, joining four producing fields in northern Iraq. The company release says the redevelopment covers more than 3B boe of initial recoverable resources and is expected to close by end-2026.
WTI climbed 4.16% to $73.37 and Brent rose 4.23% to $77.30 after President Trump said the Iran memorandum of understanding was “over.” The move followed a U.S. revocation of a license tied to Iranian crude sales.
WTI crude rose from a $69.23 settlement to $70.24 in after-hours trading after U.S. Central Command said it struck Iranian missile, drone-storage and coastal-radar sites. Brent moved from $71.99 to about $72.98 as traders repriced Strait of Hormuz risk.
About 16 million barrels of oil moved through the Strait of Hormuz in one day, according to Vice President JD Vance, even as Iran said the route was closed again. The dispute puts a 60-day U.S.-Iran negotiating window back at the center of oil-supply risk.
WTI crude settled 3.2% lower at $84.88 and Brent lost 3.4% to $87.33 after a senior Trump administration official put the odds of a U.S.-Iran Hormuz reopening agreement at 80%.
WTI rose $2.93 to $90.29 and Brent added $2.52 to $93.64 after a fresh U.S.-Iran exchange of strikes. The move keeps the Strait of Hormuz risk premium inside inflation, rates, and energy-equity pricing.
Supertanker Idemitsu Maru, carrying 2 million barrels of Saudi crude, is set to arrive in Nagoya on May 25 — the first successful Strait of Hormuz passage since Iran's war began February 28, 2026. Japan's Middle East crude imports had collapsed 67.2% year-over-year in April as the strait was blocked.
G7 finance ministers are meeting in Paris on May 18–19 as the prolonged Strait of Hormuz closure drives global oil inventories toward all-time lows by the end of May, according to UBS. The gathering comes as long-term borrowing costs surge across G7 economies and Eurogroup head Pascal Donohoe called opening the Strait 'of utmost importance.'
Brent crude rose to $103.99 (+2.67%) on May 11, touching an intraday high of $106.00, after President Trump declared Iran's latest peace offer 'totally unacceptable.' Morgan Stanley warned a Hormuz closure could push Brent to $150/bbl by summer. Pimco flagged the risk that a prolonged Iran conflict could force the Federal Reserve to raise rates.
Saudi Aramco reported Q1 2026 adjusted net income of $33.6 billion, beating the analyst consensus of $31.2 billion by 7.7% and rising 26% year-over-year. CEO Amin Nasser credited the East-West Pipeline — now at maximum 7.0 million bpd capacity — for bypassing the Hormuz blockade and delivering crude to locked-out customers.
Iran's Army spokesperson warned on May 10 that ships from countries joining U.S. Iran sanctions will be barred from the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude closed Friday at $101.29 per barrel, up 95% in Q1, with cumulative supply losses approaching one billion barrels.