Hormuz vessel traffic fell 33% on Friday, while Brent settled 1% higher at $83.55. Saudi Arabia said a fire at Saudi Aramco’s Jazan refinery was extinguished Sunday with no injuries; the cause was not disclosed, and a Houthi attack claim remains unverified.
WTI fell more than 6% to $79.10 a barrel and Brent lost more than 5% to $82.99 after President Donald Trump said a planned Iran strike was called off. The move repriced the Strait of Hormuz risk premium after weeks of supply-route stress.
The ECB kept its deposit facility rate at 2.25%, its main refinancing rate at 2.40%, and its marginal lending rate at 2.65% on July 23. The Governing Council cited volatile energy prices after the Middle East conflict and said the full inflation impact has not yet played out.
Oil briefly touched $90 after a fresh tanker-strike shock around Iran, then gave back gains as Tehran said U.S. talks could proceed. The move keeps Hormuz risk, shipping insurance, and inflation-sensitive energy costs at the center of the week’s market pricing.
Iraq and Syria signed a memorandum to rehabilitate the Kirkuk-Baniyas crude line, part of roughly $60B in U.S.-Iraq agreements reported on July 17. AP reported a projected 2M barrels per day route that would reduce reliance on the Strait of Hormuz.
ConocoPhillips $COP agreed to acquire a 42% interest in BP Energy Company of Kirkuk Limited, joining four producing fields in northern Iraq. The company release says the redevelopment covers more than 3B boe of initial recoverable resources and is expected to close by end-2026.
WTI climbed 4.16% to $73.37 and Brent rose 4.23% to $77.30 after President Trump said the Iran memorandum of understanding was “over.” The move followed a U.S. revocation of a license tied to Iranian crude sales.
WTI crude rose from a $69.23 settlement to $70.24 in after-hours trading after U.S. Central Command said it struck Iranian missile, drone-storage and coastal-radar sites. Brent moved from $71.99 to about $72.98 as traders repriced Strait of Hormuz risk.
About 16 million barrels of oil moved through the Strait of Hormuz in one day, according to Vice President JD Vance, even as Iran said the route was closed again. The dispute puts a 60-day U.S.-Iran negotiating window back at the center of oil-supply risk.
WTI crude settled 3.2% lower at $84.88 and Brent lost 3.4% to $87.33 after a senior Trump administration official put the odds of a U.S.-Iran Hormuz reopening agreement at 80%.
WTI rose $2.93 to $90.29 and Brent added $2.52 to $93.64 after a fresh U.S.-Iran exchange of strikes. The move keeps the Strait of Hormuz risk premium inside inflation, rates, and energy-equity pricing.
Supertanker Idemitsu Maru, carrying 2 million barrels of Saudi crude, is set to arrive in Nagoya on May 25 — the first successful Strait of Hormuz passage since Iran's war began February 28, 2026. Japan's Middle East crude imports had collapsed 67.2% year-over-year in April as the strait was blocked.