#macro

Brent crude fell $4.86 to $98.68 and U.S. crude dropped more than 4% to $91.83 after reports of progress toward a U.S.-Iran deal. Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 2.9% to 65,158.19, its first close above 65,000.

The University of Michigan final May sentiment index fell to 44.8, below April’s 49.8 and the 48.2 preliminary reading. One-year inflation expectations rose to 4.8% and long-run expectations climbed to 3.9%, keeping the release in the Fed-relevant macro category.

Kevin Warsh was sworn in as Federal Reserve chair on May 22, 2026, in a White House ceremony hosted by President Trump — the first time a Fed chair has taken the oath at the White House in approximately 40 years. Warsh, who served as a Fed governor from 2006 to 2011 and dissented against QE programs, is regarded as a hawkish voice; markets are watching for signals of a shift in the Fed independence framework and rate trajectory.

The 30-year US Treasury yield surged to 5.17%—briefly touching 5.20%—its highest level since 2007, as Iran-driven energy inflation fears pushed traders to price in a greater-than-50% chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike by December 2026. WTI crude fell ~2% to $102 on Trump's Iran peace pledge, but bond market stress persists as the 10-year yield also hit a 16-month high of 4.687%.

US 30-year Treasury yields hit 5.11%, clearing the psychologically key 5% level, while the 10-year note reached 4.6% intraday before settling near 4.577%. The S&P 500 fell 1.24% to 7,408.50 as technology stocks led declines — Nvidia $NVDA off 4.42%, Intel $INTC down 6.18%. Deutsche Bank flagged the post-earnings lull and Middle East tensions as catalysts for defensive positioning.

KOSPI 200 futures plunged 5.13% to 1,112.46 at 09:19 KST on May 18, triggering the sell-side sidecar for the second consecutive session. The KOSPI cash index recovered from an intraday low of -4.7% to close at 7,516.04 (+0.31%), as domestic retail buyers absorbed over KRW 2.5 trillion in foreign selling. The USD/KRW rate crossed 1,502, re-breaching the 1,500 level, with foreign investors recording eight straight days of net selling totaling over KRW 4 trillion.

G7 finance ministers are meeting in Paris on May 18–19 as the prolonged Strait of Hormuz closure drives global oil inventories toward all-time lows by the end of May, according to UBS. The gathering comes as long-term borrowing costs surge across G7 economies and Eurogroup head Pascal Donohoe called opening the Strait 'of utmost importance.'

Fed funds futures markets have shifted to price in a rate hike — not a cut — as the next move by the Federal Reserve, with December the earliest expected date. The Survey of Professional Forecasters from the Philadelphia Fed now projects Q2 CPI at 6%, more than double its 2.7% forecast from three months ago. The 30-year Treasury yield has crossed 5.1%, and newly installed Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces immediate internal pressure on the direction of policy.

Margin lending in Korean equity markets reached a record KRW 36.47 trillion as of May 15, up 33.66% from year-end 2025, as retail investors borrowed heavily to chase the KOSPI's approximately 70% year-to-date gain. Short-selling balances simultaneously surged 67.18% to KRW 20.58 trillion, near an all-time peak, prompting securities firms to warn of potential cascading forced-liquidation events.

US April import prices surged 1.9% m/m on May 15 — nearly double the +1.0% consensus estimate — while Iran-nuclear-deal impasse kept the Strait of Hormuz shut and sent oil up 3%-plus. The S&P 500 closed at 7,408.50 (-1.24%) and the Nasdaq fell 1.54%. The 10-year Treasury yield surged 116 basis points to 4.54%, its highest level in nearly a year, and markets now price a 50% probability of a Fed rate hike before year-end.

The Korean won fell through the critical 1,500 per dollar level on May 15, reaching 1,500.2 at 2:13 PM KST — the first breach since April 7. Japan's 10-year JGB yield surged to 2.72%, a 29-year high, triggering risk-off sentiment across Asia, while fading Federal Reserve rate-cut expectations and KRW 5 trillion-plus in foreign equity outflows compounded pressure on the Korean currency.

South Korea's KOSPI crossed 8,000 for the first time in history on May 15, peaking at 8,046.78 before a circuit breaker was triggered as KOSPI 200 futures fell more than 5%. The index closed at 7,493.18, down 6.12%, as foreign investors dumped a net KRW 5 trillion in a single session. Retail investors' seven-day, KRW 30-trillion buying streak could not offset the outflow, while KB Securities raised its KOSPI target from 7,500 to 10,500.