US 30-year Treasury yields hit 5.11%, clearing the psychologically key 5% level, while the 10-year note reached 4.6% intraday before settling near 4.577%. The S&P 500 fell 1.24% to 7,408.50 as technology stocks led declines — Nvidia $NVDA off 4.42%, Intel $INTC down 6.18%. Deutsche Bank flagged the post-earnings lull and Middle East tensions as catalysts for defensive positioning.
KOSPI 200 futures plunged 5.13% to 1,112.46 at 09:19 KST on May 18, triggering the sell-side sidecar for the second consecutive session. The KOSPI cash index recovered from an intraday low of -4.7% to close at 7,516.04 (+0.31%), as domestic retail buyers absorbed over KRW 2.5 trillion in foreign selling. The USD/KRW rate crossed 1,502, re-breaching the 1,500 level, with foreign investors recording eight straight days of net selling totaling over KRW 4 trillion.
G7 finance ministers are meeting in Paris on May 18–19 as the prolonged Strait of Hormuz closure drives global oil inventories toward all-time lows by the end of May, according to UBS. The gathering comes as long-term borrowing costs surge across G7 economies and Eurogroup head Pascal Donohoe called opening the Strait 'of utmost importance.'
Fed funds futures markets have shifted to price in a rate hike — not a cut — as the next move by the Federal Reserve, with December the earliest expected date. The Survey of Professional Forecasters from the Philadelphia Fed now projects Q2 CPI at 6%, more than double its 2.7% forecast from three months ago. The 30-year Treasury yield has crossed 5.1%, and newly installed Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces immediate internal pressure on the direction of policy.
Margin lending in Korean equity markets reached a record KRW 36.47 trillion as of May 15, up 33.66% from year-end 2025, as retail investors borrowed heavily to chase the KOSPI's approximately 70% year-to-date gain. Short-selling balances simultaneously surged 67.18% to KRW 20.58 trillion, near an all-time peak, prompting securities firms to warn of potential cascading forced-liquidation events.
US April import prices surged 1.9% m/m on May 15 — nearly double the +1.0% consensus estimate — while Iran-nuclear-deal impasse kept the Strait of Hormuz shut and sent oil up 3%-plus. The S&P 500 closed at 7,408.50 (-1.24%) and the Nasdaq fell 1.54%. The 10-year Treasury yield surged 116 basis points to 4.54%, its highest level in nearly a year, and markets now price a 50% probability of a Fed rate hike before year-end.
The Korean won fell through the critical 1,500 per dollar level on May 15, reaching 1,500.2 at 2:13 PM KST — the first breach since April 7. Japan's 10-year JGB yield surged to 2.72%, a 29-year high, triggering risk-off sentiment across Asia, while fading Federal Reserve rate-cut expectations and KRW 5 trillion-plus in foreign equity outflows compounded pressure on the Korean currency.
South Korea's KOSPI crossed 8,000 for the first time in history on May 15, peaking at 8,046.78 before a circuit breaker was triggered as KOSPI 200 futures fell more than 5%. The index closed at 7,493.18, down 6.12%, as foreign investors dumped a net KRW 5 trillion in a single session. Retail investors' seven-day, KRW 30-trillion buying streak could not offset the outflow, while KB Securities raised its KOSPI target from 7,500 to 10,500.
April U.S. Producer Price Index jumped 6.0% year-over-year (consensus: 4.8%) and 1.4% month-over-month (consensus: 0.5%), marking a four-year high for wholesale inflation. Core PPI hit 5.2% YoY against a 4.3% estimate, driven by energy price surge from the 11-week Iran-Gulf conflict. Bank of America pushed its first Federal Reserve rate-cut forecast to July 2027, with Kalshi prediction markets now pricing 47% odds of a hike before that date.
U.S. consumer prices rose 3.8% annually in April — 0.1 percentage point above the Dow Jones consensus and the highest since May 2023. Energy prices surged 17.9% year-over-year as WTI oil topped $100 per barrel amid the Iran-Hormuz conflict, while real average hourly wages turned negative on an annual basis for the first time in three years. CME Group data shows markets now pricing roughly 30% probability of at least one Fed rate hike before year-end.
Brent crude rose to $103.99 (+2.67%) on May 11, touching an intraday high of $106.00, after President Trump declared Iran's latest peace offer 'totally unacceptable.' Morgan Stanley warned a Hormuz closure could push Brent to $150/bbl by summer. Pimco flagged the risk that a prolonged Iran conflict could force the Federal Reserve to raise rates.
The University of Michigan's preliminary May 2026 consumer sentiment reading of 48.2 set a new all-time record low, breaking the prior trough of 50.0 from June 2022. Surging gasoline prices from Iran's Hormuz blockade are the primary catalyst, complicating the Fed's rate path while the S&P 500 posts six consecutive weeks of gains.