The Fed left the federal funds target at 3.50%-3.75% on April 29, but the real signal was a four-way dissent that exposed a deep split over how quickly policy should pivot. Energy-driven inflation risk is now colliding with softer labor momentum inside the Committee.
Brent pushed above $114 after the UAE said it will leave OPEC and OPEC+ on May 1, removing the cartel's third-largest producer at a time of disrupted Hormuz shipping. Abu Dhabi framed the move as a capacity decision, not a break with oil-market stability.
The Bank of Japan kept the overnight call-rate target at around 0.75% in a 6-3 vote and lifted its FY2026 core CPI view to 2.5%-3.0%. The April outlook said an oil shock tied to the Middle East would slow growth in 2026 even as inflation risks skew upward.
Iran said it seized two container ships in the Strait of Hormuz after reports of three attacks; Brent briefly topped $100 before trading 0.5% higher at $99.03.
UK CPI rose to 3.3% in March from 3.0% in February, in line with Reuters-polled expectations, while ONS data showed motor fuels made the largest upward contribution.
$760M of Brent crude futures were sold between 12:24 and 12:25 GMT, about 20 minutes before Iran said the Strait of Hormuz was open. Reuters said crude fell as much as 11% after the headline, adding to U.S. scrutiny of well-timed oil trades tied to Iran-war policy shifts.
Brent crude fell 9.1% to $90.38 on April 17 after Iran said the Strait of Hormuz was open, while the S&P 500 rose 1.2% to a record. On April 18, Iran said control of the strait had reverted to strict military management, and AP reported that UKMTO said IRGC gunboats fired on a tanker.
The SEC issued a conditional exemptive order on April 15 allowing eligible customers to cross-margin cash U.S. Treasury positions cleared at FICC with Treasury futures cleared at CME. The market-structure change extends a tool previously available only to clearing members.
U.S. producer prices rose 0.5% in March, well below the 1.1% consensus cited by CNBC, while core PPI increased just 0.1%. The downside surprise came even as energy prices jumped, complicating the inflation picture but reinforcing the case for a cautious Fed.